As the date for the 2014 mid-term elections are approaching, candidates for the Oregon state senate race are trying to rack up as many votes as they can. The two main candidates in the forefront are Monica Wehby, the Republican nominee, and Jeff Merkley, the incumbent state senator. Oregon, a state with a population of 3,831,074 people, has been voted as the third most liberal state, following Washington DC and Massachusetts, in 2012. Both of the state’s senators, Merkley and Ron Wyden, and the governor, John Kitzhaber, are from the Democratic Party (“Oregon”, 2013); with this information, it would be safe to assume that Oregon will probably remain a blue state but, according to recent polls from April of 2014, Republican may have a chance at securing a spot in the senate representing Oregon.
In an automated telephone survey conducted by Harper Polling of 670 voters who are most likely to participate in the mid-term elections, the results show that Democrats only have a 3% lead over the Republicans. Similarly, in the same survey, it also shows that there is only an 8% difference between Oregonians who approve of Merkley and those who do not (“Oregon Statewide Poll”, 2014). The Democrats may have the upper hand in senatorial election on November 4, but they are barely hanging onto the slight edge they have over the Republicans. It also doesn’t help that the Republicans have chosen a candidate that is not an inflexible conservative. In fact, the Republican nominee Monica Wehby, a pediatric neurosurgeon, defeated her fellow Republican Jason Conger in the Republican primary because she did not come across as conservative as Conger. Wehby’s stance on certain relevant issues does not coincide with what we would normally see from a Republican. This may, however, help the Republicans receive more votes but it may also hurt their chances as well.
Gun Control
Gun control has been a very hot topic in politics nowadays. Certain politicians endorse and encourage more restrictions on who can possess firearms and others say that the people are allowed to have guns for protection. Merkley’s opinion on this issue is that individuals should be allowed to own guns but background checks have to be expanded to keep weapons out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill (Mapes, 2014). Wehby, on the other hand, believes that the protection of our constitutional rights, especially the 2nd Amendment, is the most important. On her website, it states that “[s]he’s an unapologetic and unstinting champion of the individual citizen’s right to keep and bear arms. A constitutional right – the right to keep and bear arms – is inalienable, and our politicians must always remember that.” Wehby’s position on gun control may perhaps interfere with her chances of winning the vote because of the recent shooting at Reynolds High School in Troutdale, Oregon. Although the tragedy occurred in June of 2014, the aftermath of the shooting will definitely affect the way voters vote particularly if one candidate, Wehby, has an opinion that may potentially encourage more of this behavior.
Abortion & Same-sex Marriage
Abortion and same-sex marriage are also issues that are being debated right now. In this sector, Merkley and Wehby both have similar opinions. Both candidates support abortion rights, saying that it is the mother’s choice, and both back same-sex marriages (Mapes, 2014). The majority of Oregon also agrees with the stance of both candidates. 44% of Oregonians supporting gay marriages (“Oregon Statewide Poll”, 2014) and Oregon has the least number of restrictions places on abortion rights in the fifty states (Kliff, 2013). With both the public’s opinion and the candidates’ platform on the same side of the issue, one would assume that Merkley and Wehby will gain votes that way. Though it may be true, Wehby is facing opposition from her own party. Some Republicans do not agree with her stance on the issue which resulted in three socially-conservative groups campaigning against her along with two other candidates in the mid-term elections (Mapes, 2014). In an interview, the president of the National Organization for Marriage, Brian Brown, said “Once you go against the Republican platform, we’re going to go against you even if it means a Democrat wins.” The extreme difference of beliefs has caused a rift in Wehby’s supporters, which will hurt her chances even further.
Marijuana Legalization
In a poll done by SurveyUSA, the results showed that 44% of Oregonians are in support of legalizing marijuana in the upcoming vote on Measure 91 (KATE.com Staff, 2014). Likewise in the graph to the right from Gallup, it shows that Americans, in general, are leaning towards legalizing marijuana (Newport, 2011). Tying these results in with the Oregon state senatorial election, each candidate also has an opinion regarding marijuana. Jeff Merkley supports Measure 91, stating that the legalization will help better regulate the drug and that it will diminish the costs of the criminal justice system. Monica Wehby; however, disagrees with the legalization of marijuana, countering Merkley’s point by saying that the drug has an impact on developing brains. She also suggests that Oregon wait and see how the “pilot studies” in Washington and Colorado work before they decide on the issue (Mapes, 2014). But, with 44% of Oregon supporting the measure and the senate election coming up very soon, Wehby’s view on this matter (along with all the other comments she made on other issues) will affect the number of votes she receives. This issue, in particular, will probably have a negative impact on her campaign.
Overall, I predict that the Oregon senate election will be in favor of the Democrats and that Jeff Merkley will remain as one of the senators of Oregon as seen in the Huffington Post model estimate above. Although it seems that Merkley will most likely continue with his position, he will not win by a landslide but by a slim margin because Monica Wehby was always very close behind, trying to catch up with him. Unfortunately, some of Wehby’s views and opinions on major issues did not coincide with the beliefs of the majority and those in her own party. Her past also came back to haunt her (Wehby’s involvement with the law enforcement system was publicized – her ex-husband and ex-boyfriend both called the police on her), which casted her in a negative light (Baris, 2014). With all of the negatives in Wehby’s campaign added up, it gives Merkley just enough advantage over her to win the election.
References
Oregon. (2013). Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.infoplease.com/us-states/oregon.html
Harper Polling. (n.d.) Oregon Statewide Poll. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/oregon-poll-too-close-for-comfort#
Wehby. (2014). Constitution/ 2nd Amendment. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.monicafororegon.com/issues/constitution2nd-amendment/
J. Mapes, (October 26, 2014). Monica Wehby and Jeff Merkley: How they line up on the issues in Oregon’s U.S. Senate race. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/10/monica_wehby_and_jeff_merkley.html
J. Mapes, (September 26, 2014) Monica Wehby’s gay marriage, abortion stances spark opposition by 3 conservative groups. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/09/monica_wehbys_gay_marriage_abo.html
S. Kliff (January 31, 2013). All states except Oregon now limit abortion access. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/all-states-except-oregon-now-limit-abortion-access/
KATU.com Staff (September 30, 2014). Exclusive poll shows race to legalize marijuana in Oregon too close to call. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.katu.com/politics/KATU-poll-shows-race-to-legalize-marijuana-in-Oregon-too-close-to-call-277108111.html
F. Newport (October 17, 2011). Record-High 50% of Americans Favor Legalizing Marijuana Use. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.gallup.com/poll/150149/record-high-americans-favor-legalizing-marijuana.aspx
R. D. Baris (September 22, 2014). Oregon Senate Race Unaffected By GOP Movement Nationwide. Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/2014/09/22/election-analysis/oregon-senate-race-unaffected-gop-movement-nationwide/
2014 Oregon Senate: Wehby vs. Merkley (n.d.) Retrieved on November 2, 2014 from http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-oregon-senate-wehby-vs-merkley#!
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