The General Senate Elections Prediction by Jenny Chen, Anni Bangiev, and Stephanie Lee

As the Senate race is coming to a close with the elections looming on Tuesday, the polling seems to show that the Republicans are going to achieve the majority. 52 states are either going Republican or leaning towards becoming Republican while there are 47 states going Democratic. There are about eight states (AK, AR, CO, IA, LA, MT, SD, WV) that were previously viewed as tossups, but are now considered to lean towards the Republicans. The New York Times is also predicting that as of now, the Republicans have a 69% chance of gaining majority in the Senate. The closest race seems to be in Kansas where the Democrats have a 54% of winning and in Georgia where the Republicans have a 58% chance of winning. They are also predicting that the Democratic party will end up winning 48 seats while the Republicans, 52 giving the Republicans majority by 4 seats. The Senate race had been close up until the end of September as the Republicans' chance to gaining majority continued increasing as the Democrats' chance gradually decreased. We have provided some graphs, tables, and maps below to accompany our prediction.

This graph from the New York Times shows the chances of either party winning the Senate from the beginning of the year.

These tables, also from the New York Times, show the likelihood of either party winning in each state. Four of the most competitive races, which are also considered toss ups, lean Republican.

This table from the New York Times shows the likeliest outcome of the Senate elections as a whole.

This map from Real Clear Politics shows the likely outcome in each state; it is quite similar to the data from the New York Times.

This map from Politico is quite similar to the one above, and also favors the Republicans in the elections.

References

2014 Senate race ratings. (n.d.). Politico. Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.politico.com/2014-election/predictions/senate/#.VFcC2VPF-wF

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate. (n.d.). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Senate No Toss Ups. (n.d.). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

Who Will Win the Senate? (n.d.). New York Times. Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/