Backdrop of the 2014 Iowa Senate Race
The Hawkeye state had originally been a heavily Republican state up until around the 1960s when the Republican party began losing its grip on the state due to the state's move towards supporting the social reform movements of the period. There seemed to be a revival of the Republican party in the state when Republican congressman Charles Grassley won a Senate seat in 1980 with the defeat of Senator John Culver. However, due to the problems farmers were experiencing in the 1980s with land values dropping by a third nationally and sky-high interest rates, populist Democrat Tom Harkin ended up being elected into the House the same year Grassley was. With four successful re-elections under his belt, Harkin has decided to call it a career this year. This gives way to the intensely competitive race for Harkin's open spot between Democratic Republican Bruce Braley and Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
Campaign Fumbles From Both Sides
For starters, let's take a look at the race from the end of February to the days leading up to Election Day.
As you go through the timeline between February 25th and November 1st, Braley's support has plateaued as Ernst's steadily climbs. Towards the upper right hand of the graph, Ernst is shown having a 1.8 point lead against Braley. Braley had a strong start in the beginning garnering most of the support, but both their chances of winning the Senate seat seems to have evened out towards the end of May.
A major reason why this race has turned into the tossup it is now is due to the fact that both candidates threw at the public loads of misinformation. Looking at Braley, he has been criticized for skipping 15 out of the 19 Veterans' Affairs Committee hearings. However, this is not entirely true since he had attended about 88 percent of the subcommittee hearings bringing his attendance to about 53 percent of all the hearings he could have attended. Braley's support for Obamacare is also hurting his chances of winning the Senate race because President Obama's approval ratings have dropped to an all time low. On top of this, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is also running an advertisement titled "Wrong" (see below) attacking Braley and the Affordable Care Act. It accuses the act of cutting Medicare by $716 billion, but this isn't true because the act is only slowing the growth of Medicare spending rather than cutting the actual spending money of Medicare.
As for Ernst, one of her bigger issues is the association people have with her and privatization of social security. However, the slamming she is getting for this is baseless because it simply isn't true. She actually hasn't supported any plans to change Social Security, but they are using her consideration for allowing young workers to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into stock market-based personal savings accounts for retirement against her. Ernst has even declared that she opposes any changes in Social Security for current seniors or workers nearing retirement (Ernst and 'Privatizing' Social Security). Another front she is being attacked on is her position on the Renewable Fuel Standard (a government mandate that requires a certain amount of renewable fuels to be used in transportation fuel) and wind production tax credit. However, her position on this is distorted once again because although she's opposed to subsidies in general, she supports the RFS. The NextGen Climate Action (liberal group founded by billionaire climate-change activist Tom Seyer) released banners (see below) recently calling Ernst a "jobs killer" because Ernst co-sponsored an Iowa Senate resolution pushing the federal government to cut the level of renewable fuels required. It would result in the loss of "37,400 ethanol-related jobs and the loss of 7,500 biodiesel-related jobs.
However, with the Huffington Post analysis of the race, signs are starting to point in the favor of Ernst. It really seems that Braley has lost the favor of the public especially when they have him labeled as a politician who doesn't attend important meetings or one that skips meetings for fundraisers (this is proven to be untrue since the fundraisers didn't fall into the time the meeting was going on for). At this point, Ernst has a 59 percent chance of winning the Senate race turning the state into a Republican one for the term. As close as this race is going to be, it is believed that Ernst will win this election.
References
Final Week Spin. (2014, October 31). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.factcheck.org/2014/10/final-week-spin/
Robertson, L., & Kiely, E. (2014, October 3). Midterm Medicare Mudslinging. Retrieved on November 2, 2014.
Gore, D. (2014, October 7). Ernst and 'Privatizing' Social Security. Retrieved November 3, 2014, fromhttp://www.factcheck.org/2014/10/ernst-and-privatizing-social-security/
FactChecking the Iowa Senate Race. (2014, October 24). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.factcheck.org/2014/10/factchecking-the-iowa-senate-race/
The Rothenberg Political Report. (n.d.). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate
Election 2014 - Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Braley. (n.d.). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html
Isenstadt, A. (2014, September 25). The worst campaigns of 2014. Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/2014-worst-campaigns-111311.html
2014 Iowa Senate: Ernst vs. Braley - Polls - HuffPost Pollster. (n.d.). Retrieved on November 2, 2014, from http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-iowa-senate-ernst-vs-braley
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