Louisiana, a Deep South state surrounded by Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi, has a population of roughly 4.6 million, of which 62.8% are white, 32.2% black, and 5% other. The unemployment rate is a staggering 8.8%, higher than the national average (“2014 Louisiana Elections Overview,” 2014).
 |
| (Corasaniti, 2012) |
This state has a very unique political culture. The Northern region of Louisiana is typically rural and Protestant evangelical, dominated by agriculture and the natural gas industry, thus making it the most conservative region of the state. Despite this, the suburban/rural division on social issues is blurred in the state. Though the southern part of Louisiana is Catholic, these Catholics are more politically and socially similar to evangelical Protestants than to Catholics in other states. They tend to be more culturally conservative and lean toward the right side of the political spectrum. In general, Louisiana Republicans are incredibly conservative on social issues; for instance, they have some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country (Cohen, 2012).
 |
| (Cohen, 2012) |
Louisiana has been solidly Democrat between 1877 and the 1990s (“Louisiana,” 2012), but has been leaning Republican ever since Bill Clinton’s victories in the state in 1992 and 1996 (“2014 Louisiana Elections Overview,” 2014). One major reason for the sudden political change is the Catholic vote. Typically, the Catholics have made up a large part of the swing vote in Louisiana; then, social issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion entered the political playing field, and the Catholics became reliable Republicans. Hurricane Katrina is also considered the tipping point which pushed Louisiana over to the Republican side; residents were upset with the state government’s (which was Democratic) handling of the disaster, so they naturally wanted a change in administration (Corasaniti, 2012).
At the heart of the Louisiana Senate race is the issue of President Obama. Most of the voters in the state say that their opinion of the current president will be the deciding factor in the way they vote on Tuesday; the majority of the state is disappointed with President Obama. Other major issues in the race include immigration reform, abortion laws, and Obamacare (Hendersen, 2014). With many voters’ dissatisfaction of the president, and thereby the Democrats in general, Republican contenders’ attack strategies consist of connecting the Democrat incumbent to the president (Miller, 2014).
 |
| (“Louisiana: Obama job approval,’ 2014) |
The three candidates running are Senator Mary Landrieu (D), Congressman Bill Cassidy (R), and retired U.S. Air Force Col. Rob Maness (R). Landrieu has been trying to distance herself from the president and the Democratic Party in general, without outright criticizing either; on the other hand, Cassidy has been emphasizing Landrieu’s support for President Obama, particularly for the Affordable Care Act (Miller, 2014). Louisiana’s rightward tilt on abortion has created an obvious gap between Landrieu and Cassidy. Landrieu has been fairly moderate in her voting on abortion; for instance, she supports Roe v. Wade, but has also voted against allowing minors to cross state lines to get abortions (“Mary Landrieu on the Issues,” n.d.). On the other hand, Cassidy has consistently voted against federal funding for abortions and the coverage of abortions under Obamacare (“Bill Cassidy on the issues,” n.d.). Louisiana is a pro-life state, even if many of the pro-lifers do not want decisions such as Roe v. Wade overturned (Everett, 2014).
Immigration reform has also gained attention in Louisiana. Without a large Hispanic population like Texas to support relaxed immigration policies, the topic is particularly difficult for Senator Landrieu. However, Cassidy is also being attacked by conservative groups, including Rob Maness, who believe that he is not tough enough regarding the issue. Stricter immigration laws are popular in Louisiana and Maness, desperate to show how different he is from the other two candidates, has latched onto the issue as the true conservative. While Cassidy has been trying to appear tougher on immigration through television ads, Landrieu has been struggling with the issue. Despite Obama’s delay on executive action regarding immigration reform until after the midterm elections, this may still hurt Landrieu because Louisiana will most likely have a runoff, since polls show that neither of the candidates have at least 50% of the vote, so she will have to run against Cassidy a second time (Berry, 2014).
 |
| (“2014 Louisiana Senate: Cassidy vs. Landrieu,” 2014) |
As previously stated, the Senate race in Louisiana will probably end up as a runoff election to be decided in early December between Landrieu and Cassidy. Last year, Landrieu seemed to be ahead of Cassidy, but the roles have reversed in 2014, with Cassidy slightly in the lead.
Despite how close the race appears to be, it is believed by many, including myself, that Cassidy will win the runoff election. Although Louisiana has been a solid Democrat state for years, it has slowly been shifting right since the 1990s. Louisiana’s unique political geography, consisting of conservative Protestant evangelicals and Catholics, and ever-increasing disappointment with Democrats only further the idea of a Republican winning the Senate race. With social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage playing such a large role in politics today, it is only logical that many of the state’s religious or cultural conservatives vote Republican, regardless of how conservative they really are on the issues. The Republicans have been targeting Landrieu’s seat for quite some time, to gain the majority in the Senate, so the campaign has been especially difficult for her. Louisiana’s election of Bill Cassidy would just be another step in the state’s current Republican direction.
References
These tables, also from the New York Times, show the likelihood of either party winning in each state. Four of the most competitive races, which are also considered toss ups, lean Republican.
